A Cold Start for Hot Wars? The Indian Army's New Limited War Doctrine (2024)

A Cold Start for Hot Wars

The latent conºict between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan makes continued strategic stability in South Asia uncertain. A breakdown of deterrence between the two countries would have serious consequences, including the potential use of nuclear weapons. Since 1999 there have been two military crises involving India and Pakistan that escalated to the point where outside actors felt the need to intervene to prevent the outbreak of war. A low-level, Pakistani-backed insurgency in Indian-controlled Kashmir adds to the tense relations between the two nations. Given the nuclear dimension involved, as well as India's increasingly prominent role in world affairs and Pakistan's domestic instability, strategic and military developments on the subcontinent are of great concern to the broader international community. In response to the perceived inability of the Indian military to react to the December 2001 attack on the Parliament building in New Delhi by Pakistanibacked Kashmiri militants and the subsequent military standoff with Pakistan, known as Operation Parakram (Operation Victory), the Indian Army announced a new limited war doctrine in April 2004 that would allow it to mobilize quickly and undertake retaliatory attacks in response to speciªc challenges posed by Pakistan's "proxy war" in Kashmir. This Cold Start doctrine marked a break from the fundamentally defensive orientation that the Indian military has employed since independence in 1947. Requiring combined arms operating jointly with airpower from the Indian Air Force, Cold Start represents a signiªcant undertaking for the Indian military. This study explores the Cold Start concept, including its potential impact on strategic stability in South Asia, and assesses the Indian military's progress toward implementing the new doctrine since its unveiling. Limited war on the subcontinent poses a serious risk of escalation based on a number of factors that are not necessarily under the control of the policymakers or military leaders who would initiate the conºict. A history of misperception, poor intelligence, and India's awkward national security

Indian Cold Start Doctrine: Pakistan's Policy Response

Journal of the Research Society of Pakistan, 2018

India and Pakistan are two next-door neighbors in South Asia, with drastic conflicting and hostile relations. Since the independence of both countries in August 1947 from British rule. Both countries have fought many wars on the territorial dispute of Kashmir, which is one of the root causes of conflict between two countries. Instead of resolving different issues between them through conciliation, diplomacy and dialogues, they have resorted to the use of different strategies, both offensive and defensive, in different times, to resolve different issues between them including Kashmir issue, informally, through the use of force. Indian's Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) is one of those strategies which is aimed to gain limited Military-cum-political objectives by making shallow penetration into Pakistan. The existence of proactive strategy like Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) can engulf the whole of South Asian region, which is strategically important and most vibrant region in the world.. This research paper will bring to light all the elements and Modus Operandi of Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) and possible response from Pakistan and defense capability of both countries.

Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia

Http Dx Doi Org 10 1080 01402390 2015 1014473, 2015

Stability On the Brink, Indian New Normal Policy and Threat of Nuclear War in South Asia

Stability On the Brink, Indian New Normal Policy and Threat of Nuclear War in South Asia

Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan faced a constant challenge by its eastern neighbour. India’s attitude towards Pakistan had always centred on hostility and undermining its stability. Various methods have been employed to undermine Pakistan’s sovereignty; its disintegration in 1971 would not have been possible without India’s crucial role. While Kashmir remains a bone of contention between the two South Asian states, India’s aspiration to become the regional hegemon has complicated the relations between the two rivals even further. India desires regional hegemony while Pakistan deems it unacceptable. After the inception of Nuclear weapon in the South Asian Theater, it was believed that a permanent balance had been achieved, but it was unacceptable for India. To overcome the nuclear dilemma, India came up with the Cold Start doctrine. Cold Start Doctrine is a conventional military strategy under which India will increase the efficiency of its force so that it can invade Pakistan any time in a very short period. Though immediately this strategy was neutralized by Pakistan. Pakistan introduced shortrange, tactical nuclear and asserted that it would use these short-range missile in case of aggression by the Indian military. Even in the presence of tactical nuclear weapons, India did not back out from its plan to become a regional hegemon or to acquire enhanced capability and capacity to undermine Pakistan at any given time. To achieve this goal, India is discussing to change its nuclear doctrine, which will be supported by a missile defence system. With already present nuclear shadow in South Asia, aggressive Indian policies to create a new kind of hegemonic order in the region can lead South Asia to destruction.

Comparative Strategy India and nuclear Asia: forces, doctrine, and dangers

The Sources of Military Change in India: An Analysis of Evolving Strategies and Doctrines towards Pakistan

Military change in India has been a function of the evolving capabilities of Pakistan and China and the limited resources available for modernisation. Consequently, most changes in military goals and organisational structures have been incremental and adaptive. Limited resources have also meant that India’s military effort has principally focused upon the immediate threat from Pakistan. The more latent challenge from China has been dealt with mainly through diplomacy at the bilateral and multilateral levels. Major change has occurred only in India’s strategy and service doctrines vis-à-vis Pakistan. India’s strategy towards Pakistan has evolved from annihilation in full-scale war until the late 1980s to exhaustion in limited war since then, mainly as a result of Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons capability. And given the imperative of attaining a swift victory before international diplomatic or military intervention ensued, the Army’s doctrine has evolved from attrition to manoeuvre and now, in the Cold Start doctrine, to a creative combination of attrition, manoeuvre and surprise. The Air Force doctrine has successively evolved from attaining a favourable air situation to command of the air to in-theatre air superiority. And the Navy’s doctrine has evolved from security of the coast to limited command of the sea.

"Indian Military Expansion 2020 – Implications for Pakistan's National Security" Written by admin Vol 7 No 3 Mar 4, 2013

Deterrence Adrift? Mapping Conflict and Escalation in South Asia

Strategic Studies Quarterly, 2016

Tensions between India and Pakistan spiked from 2014 through late 2015, meriting an analysis of how an armed conflict might unfold between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. A common assumption in academic and policy circles is that any modern-day Indo–Pakistani conflict would remain limited and localized, as nuclear deterrence would dissuade either side from seeking a Carthaginian peace. Accordingly, India’s limited war doctrine, Cold Start, has attracted a great deal of interest and scrutiny among South Asia analysts. Cold Start envisions a shallow but high-intensity ground offensive into Pakistan with a handful of division- or brigade-sized strike formations, calibrated in such a way that avoids crossing Islamabad’s nuclear redlines. The doctrine is premised on the assumption that India will be able to assert escalation control and prevent the ensuing conflict from spiraling out of hand. However, the reality is the very opposite. If a limited ground incursion is authorized, military necessity and miscalculation could very well precipitate all-out conventional war, bringing South Asia to the brink of nuclear calamity. This article distinguishes itself from the prevailing Indo–Pakistani escalation literature by mapping the military operational imperatives that New Delhi and Islamabad might face in a Cold Start contingency and by exploring the escalatory implications of the defensive strategy outlined in Pakistan’s latest army doctrine,Comprehensive Response, published in December 2011.

APPRAISAL OF INDIAN MILITARY MODERNIZATION: IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL STRATEGIC STABILITY

The Journal of Political Science, 2021

The Indian Armed Forces have been witnessing a major strategic shift in the recent years. The codified version of Indian doctrinal mapping has been manoeuvred to entertain offensive military posture with less emphasis on strategic restraint. The strategic shift, however, is visible not only in the Indian Defence Policy but also pragmatically enforced with the acquisition of advanced weapons and its practical demonstration. Its aggression from Balakot strikes against Pakistan to more recent incursions in Eastern Ladakh against China aims to integrate its offensive military posture with wider geostrategic ambitions in the region. India is utilizing its bilateral strategic partnerships with powers including Russia, the United States, and Israel to augment its military capacity and credibility. The enhanced synergy is consistent with the revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) philosophy which reflects India's will to adopt proactive and offensive strategy in orderto emerge as the leading power in Asia.The methodology used in the paper is qualitative in nature, based on exploratory researchmethod and used both primary and secondary resources. It unveils India's growing military modernization in the theoretical context of 'Offensive-cum-Defensive' Strategy. The paper argues that India's doctrinal shift in favour of offensive military postures combines with its regional assertiveness against Pakistan and China, is potentially threatening strategic stability in South Asia.

Preparing for the future war india and pakistans changing military doctrines ?>

India and Pakistan have been changing their military doctrines at a faster pace. Indians had been since long focused on the policy of preparing them to fight a full-fledged conventional war against Pakistan. It was the nuclearization of Pakistan that forced them to bring change into Indian military doctrine and focus on a limited war than a full-fledged one. This Indian military tilt pressurized Pakistan to fill the gap at the tactical by introducing low yield nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Furthermore, Indians being restricted to initiate limited war against Pakistan opted for the options of surgical strike and, when failed to gain the desired efforts against Pakistan, opted for airstrikes in 2019, which resulted in a severe crisis. There is still a lot to come in future and bring further changes into the military doctrines of the two countries. This qualitative research gives a detailed discussion on the changing military doctrine of India and Pakistan, adding the views of expert informants.